February 27, 2025
2025-26 Commercial Construction Market Forecast
There are several sources providing forecasting data on the state of the commercial building and construction industry. One of the best known is the American Institute of Architects (AIA), which publishes a consensus construction forecast twice a year. Learn more about the AIA's outlook on the industry along with insights from some of the other leading construction industry prognosticators, some of which are part of the AIA’s aggregate data.
Momentum on the Market
Here’s a look at each segment, ranked by their expected growth in 2025 and into 2026, along with an extended multi-year forecast view and insight.
Amusement & Recreation
TRENDING: According to blooloop’s Top 13 Trends to Watch in the Visitor Attractions Industry, integrating gamification and AI into the overall facility experience remains a top digital transformation trend. Experientially-themed resorts and venues are examples for how this digital transformation continues to enhance the customer experience.
Hotels & Lodging
TRENDING: According to Building Design + Construction, U.S. hotel construction will boom in 2025, with southern markets like Dallas, Atlanta, Austin, Nashville, and Phoenix leading the way.
Healthcare
TRENDING: The The CBRE 2025 U.S. Healthcare Real Estate Outlook sees a continued emphasis on construction of medical outpatient buildings (MOBs) outside of traditional hospital campuses, which are more cost-efficient and conveniently located for patients. However, MOB developments on or adjacent to hospital campuses are 150% larger as physicians prefer to remain near hospitals, allowing them to receive more favorable reimbursement rates.
Education
TRENDING: K-12 building design trends for 2025 and beyond include more flexible, four-sided classrooms that allow for both collaborative and individualized learning. Resiliency in design is also a trend so that classrooms can be more efficiently renovated as part of their life cycles. Resilient design includes flexible floor plates to enable easier reconfiguring of load-bearing walls and creating more accessible and centralized underground infrastructure of utilities.
Office
TRENDING: The AIA Consensus Forecast sees data center construction spending, a subset of the office segment, growing 22% in 2025 and over 14% in 2026. This is driven predominantly by emerging AI power generation demand. Business leader Kevin O'Leary identifies Texas, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Alberta, Canada, as key geographic growth markets due to available high natural gas energy sources to fuel immediate needs.
Manufacturing/Warehouses
TRENDING: To meet increasing manufacturing demands with a decreased workforce, the rise of smart factories with AI-driven machine learning, performance analytics, robotic automation, 3D printing, cyber security, and flexible supply chain/demand analysis becomes commonplace. Reshoring manufacturing capability is necessary to achieve these demands. Learn more about the Top 11 Manufacturing Trends for 2025. The AIA Consensus Forecast sees warehouse construction spending decreasing by -2.0% in 2025 and rebounding +3.0 in 2026.
Sources:
FMI Corp Q1 2025 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook; AIA Consensus Forecast, January 2025; U.S. Census Monthly Construction spending, 1/2/25
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