August 27, 2025
2025-26 Commercial Construction Market Forecast
July 2025 - Mid-Year Update
There are several sources providing forecasting data on the state of the commercial building and construction industry. One of the best known is the American Institute of Architects, who publish a consensus construction forecast twice a year. Learn more about their outlook on the industry along with insights from some of the other leading construction industry prognosticators, some of whom are part of the AIA’s aggregate data.
Momentum on the Market
Here’s an updated look at each segment, ranked by their expected growth in 2025 and into 2026, along with an extended multi-year forecast view and insight.
Amusement & Recreation
TRENDING: Website TFC Stadiums explores 2025's Most Anticipated Stadium Openings across the globe and sees a trend pattern where sustainability, technology, and cultural storytelling are common themes for construction design and enhancing the customer experience.
Hotels & Lodging
TRENDING: Forbes recently published the The Best Hotel Chains for 2025 in North America, using a recent JD Power study. Since the pandemic, hotel guests report experiencing increased perceived value (despite record-high room rates) in all hotel segments, due in a large part to capital investments in renovations.
Healthcare
TRENDING: According to Building Design + Construction, the national average cost per square foot for commercial new construction of hospitals has increased over 21% over the past five years – from $371.48 to $451.11. The most expensive market is New York ($582.21); and the highest 5-year increase is Los Angeles (24.3%).
Education
TRENDING: School Construction News reports interior design trends for colleges and universities are focusing on developing spaces that are flexible with movable partitions and foldable/stackable furniture; are tech-enabled with Augmented Reality (AR) or Virtual Reality (VR) labs; offer neurodiversity – recognizing a range of adaptable cognitive and sensory preferences; and are community-fostering to emphasize social interaction within smaller footprints.
Office
TRENDING: As of June 2025, Commercial Cafe reports the top five markets with office space under construction to be: 1. Boston (5.86M sq. ft.); 2. Dallas (3.25M sq. ft.); 3. Austin (2.71M sq. ft.); 4. Los Angeles (2.10M sq. ft.); 5. San Diego (1.95M sq. ft.).
Data Centers
TRENDING: BLD Marketing’s recent blog, U.S. Data Center Construction Set for Significant Growth in 2025, focuses on the demand drivers like surging artificial intelligence needs and storage capacity, cloud computing growth, expansion of 5G networks, and rising data privacy and security concerns.
Manufacturing
TRENDING: Construction, Design and Management sees future industrial facility construction to be driven by a continued focus on automation and smart facilities with IoT integration; a commitment to efficient sustainable components like LED lighting and water recycling systems; flexible modular designs; and workspaces focused on worker wellness and safety.
Warehouses
TRENDING: Element Logic, a warehousing solutions specialist, sees warehouse space optimization as a key opportunity for future facilities. The answer is to address rising real estate costs and maximize use of smaller footprints. Solutions include better vertical space utilization, the ability to more densely stack bins in cube formations, and the integration of data-driven software to optimize warehouse layouts, streamline material flow, and minimize wasted space.
Sources:
FMI Corp Q3 2025 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook; AIA Consensus Forecast, July 2025; U.S. Census Monthly Construction spending – May 2025 Total Construction Seasonally Adjusted, 7/1/25
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