Craig Webb of Webb Analytics shares insights on supply chains, materials, labor, tariffs, and more.

Dealers and lumberyards across the United States have been forced to navigate a complex supply chain landscape in recent years. From overall uncertainty to rising costs, material and labor shortages, and evolving consumer demands, building material suppliers are rethinking everything from inventory management to AI assistance.

BLD Marketing sat down with Craig Webb of Webb Analytics (former long-time editor-in-chief of ProSales magazine) to get a clearer picture of how dealers and lumberyards are responding to industry pressures and what’s on the horizon for the construction and housing markets.

Q: From your perspective, what are the biggest supply chain challenges dealers and lumberyards are facing right now?

CW: The biggest challenge is uncertainty. Dealers have to plan ahead and know how many days’ worth of inventory they have while forecasting pricing six months out. Plus, the lack of clarity around tariffs, duties, countervailing, or anti-dumping regulations is creating some hesitancy.

Industries are changing so rapidly, so lack of certainty across the board is the biggest issue right now.

Q: Have you seen any changes in these challenges over the past year, either easing or worsening?

CW: It has been a decade of tumult. Many consider 2019 the last “normal” year for construction supply. Since then, we’ve had COVID slowdowns, economic fluctuations, interest rate crackdowns, political changes, and tariffs. Simply put, it has been a lot for dealers to navigate, and they are having a hard time comparing current to past performance because of so many “asterisks” that apply to recent years.

Q: Are there particular product categories where disruptions are most severe?

CW: Each category has its own quirks, unique challenges, and changes.

• Lumber: Uncertainty around the future of Canadian lumber due to anti-dumping and Section 232 penalties. We are now seeing species substitution like southern yellow pine being used for framing where it is normally not.
• Roofing: This segment is very weather-dependent, with sales rising or falling based on how many hailstorms and hurricanes America gets in a year. Remodeling matters more than new-home construction in this segment. The roofing industry generally tries price increases fairly frequently, but there is a lot of discounting going on at the moment, and I have heard there is a lot of material on the ground at factories right now. Also, major management changes at big roofing supply companies like SRS and Beacon (now QXO) have shaken things up.
• Drywall, interior, and gypsum: On the remodeling and single-family construction side, surveys indicate that consumers increasingly are pushing back when they see price estimates for the work to be done. They still might go ahead, particularly if the need is dire, but they also are requesting changes to simpler projects and perhaps less expensive interior finishes. On the multifamily side, we have seen a decline in the volume of construction underway ever since the Federal Reserve hiked rates a few years ago. There is a lot of hope that recent and future Fed easing will revive this sector, but it is expected to take a while. And while commercial construction is pretty vibrant right now, a big share of the work under way is for server farms and data centers—and they don’t need kitchen cabinets.

Q: How are dealers and building material suppliers adapting to constraints?

CW: The number one thing is trying to keep inventory low. A supplier who would ordinarily stock 30 days’ worth of a material now might only keep enough for 15 days. At the same time, they are looking for efficiencies: using AI, looking at dormant accounts, optimizing yard operations, “selling the whole house instead of half,” turning trucks around faster to get extra shipments in a day, and making small but meaningful incremental improvements wherever possible.

Q: Are you seeing more collaboration between dealers and manufacturers to help stabilize supply?

CW: One interesting thing is that dealers aren’t just selling things, they are installing too. For example, there is an increasing collaboration between manufacturers and dealers to do window and door installation, which reduces the chance of warranty claims and the potential for callbacks. The manufacturer likes it for the warranty, the builder gets an expert installation, and the dealer gets added revenue. It is a win-win-win.

Q: What role do technology and forecasting tools play in helping dealers navigate uncertainty?

CW: Dealers are becoming more sophisticated. Tools can help with pricing, inventory checks, AI-assisted credit and collections, and online bill payment. These improvements save time, make cash flow easier, and reduce the administrative burden on sales teams.

Q: Beyond materials, how are labor shortages in construction affecting demand at the dealer level? Are stalled or delayed projects translating into softened orders?

CW: Labor is easier to find than before, so concerns are lower for dealers. However, recent ICE crackdowns are affecting construction crews in some areas, but most dealers work with custom builders who have more flexible schedules than tract builders. Regardless, day labor issues exist in places like California, but most dealers are not heavily impacted by this right now.

Q: What’s your outlook for the next 12–18 months in terms of material availability, pricing, and dealer operations?

CW: Most in the industry are regarding 2025 as a lost year. The economy is weak, and expectations for a big increase in product demand or a construction boost have not materialized. However, lower interest rates should help to reduce mortgage rates.

By the second half of 2026, things should recover. We will likely see building material prices rise over the next 12 months – which may increase revenues – but fewer jobs combined with higher material costs could neutralize this. We are in a wait-and-see phase right now.

Q: Any other final observations?

CW: I think the big uncertainty in this country is how the American public views the American Dream, and how much they see themselves fulfilling it.

The questions to ask are:

• Is there room and ability to provide more housing for Americans at an affordable price?
• What do prospective buyers consider a home today? Is a townhome a home, or is their idea of a “home” the classic, detached single-family house on an acre of land?

Zoning and urban infill policies play a big role in all of this. We often say there aren’t enough houses, but to move forward, we need to figure out what types of housing people want and what’s realistically possible to provide.