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2026-27 Commercial Construction Market Forecast

February 19, 2026

2026-27 Commercial Construction Market Forecast

Building Industry Forecasts
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Learn the Growth Opportunities by Commercial Segment

There are several sources providing forecasting data on the state of the commercial building and construction industry. One of the best known is the American Institute for Architects (AIA), who publishes a consensus construction forecast twice a year. Learn more about their outlook on the industry along with insights from some of the other leading construction industry prognosticators, some of whom are part of the AIA’s aggregate data.

2025-26 Commercial Construction Market Forecast chart update beginning of the year

A Breakdown of Each Construction Segment

Here is a closer look at each non-residential construction segment, with their expected growth along with an extended multi-year forecast view and insight.

Amusement & Recreation 

TRENDING: Indoor water parks are growing in popularity, according to Blooloop. They require less space than the outdoor versions (making them popular in urban and suburban settings; attract visitors year-round; and are often connected with resort-style hotels.

Hotels & Lodging 

TRENDING: FMI Corp sees renovation projects and overall property improvements as the source of activity for 2026. “Owners still need to keep properties competitive, but scopes are becoming more practical, with focus on guestrooms, lobbies, and building systems that protect rates and reduce operating friction.”

Healthcare 

TRENDING: Healthcare facility construction and renovation budgets continue to remain tight and often need to be justified with expected outcomes. Evidence-Based Design (EBD) is a data-driven method that links physical design with healthcare improvements like reducing patient stress through natural light and views, or lowering patient fall rates by optimizing room layouts.

Education 

TRENDING: K-12 schools, with a continued focus on safety, are seeing the rise of Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED), which emphasizes smarter building design layouts. Elements include natural surveillance with clear sightlines versus more cameras; better use of walkways, lighting, and fences to guide visitors toward the main entrance; and territorial reinforcement with well-defined property boundaries.

Office 

TRENDING: IOC Construction, a commercial construction services firm, sees 2026 Commercial Design Trends centered on more neutral colors and clean lines; durable, cleanable surface materials for high-traffic areas; adaptable lighting that contributes to energy savings during off-peak times; intuitive visual signage with less words to guide visitors through buildings; hospitality-inspired lobbies in commercial buildings; stronger use of biophilic elements; and small-luxury upgrades for high-touch areas like backlit vanity mirrors in restrooms.

Data Centers

TRENDING: According to Accenture’s Data Center 10 Key Trends for 2026, while hyperscalers dominate the headlines, edge data centers – small facilities built near cities, industrial areas, and transportation corridors – are a key growth segment. Accenture predicts global growth in edge centers from $15.4B in 2024 to $39.8B by 2030, with North America realizing 32% annual growth. This will require a reliance on prefabricated elements and modular design to meet delivery expectations, solve for a lack of skilled labor, and to build in congested areas.

Manufacturing 

TRENDING: Deloitte’s 2026 Manufacturing Industry Outlook states that as of July 2025, companies have announced more than $500B in private sector commitments for U.S. chipmaking, which would triple domestic capacity by 2032 and create more than 500,000 jobs.

Warehouses 

TRENDING: Power availability is an increasingly critical factor in selecting a warehouse. Prologis, a leading logistics firm, points out in their 2026 Supply Chain Trends the need for power-ready logistics facilities capable of supporting automation and manufacturing demands. They estimate that fully automated facilities use 3-5x more power.

Retail/Other Commercial  

TRENDING: According to FMI Corp, there were more store closings than openings with Joann Fabrics, Forever 21, At Home, and Rite Aid declaring bankruptcy. While retailers continue to invest in technology and ecommerce, in-store sales still account for 85% of retail activity. Expect retail construction activity around remodels, re-tenants, and mixed-use additions.


Sources:

FMI Corp Q1 2026 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook; AIA Consensus Forecast, January 2026; U.S. Census Monthly Construction spending – October 2025 Total Construction Seasonally Adjusted, 1/21/26.

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